04.24.2017.埃及總統已將埃及變成聖戰士叛亂造反的區域了.

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Egypt risks becoming the region’s Greece

因為你們自己明明曉得,主的日子來到好像夜間的賊一樣。 人正說平安穩妥的時候,災禍忽然臨到他們,如同產難臨到懷胎的婦人一樣,他們絕不能逃脫。那日子就如同網羅忽然臨到你們 35 因為那日子要這樣臨到全地上一切居住的人。那時,主耶穌同他有能力的天使從天上在火焰中顯現,要報應那不認識神和那不聽從我主耶穌福音的人。他們要受刑罰,就是永遠沉淪,離開主的面和他權能的榮光10 這正是主降臨,要在他聖徒的身上得榮耀,又在一切信的人身上顯為稀奇的那日子。瑪拉基書 4主嚴懲惡人萬軍之耶和華說「那日臨近,勢如燒著的火爐,凡狂傲的和行惡的必如碎秸,在那日必被燒盡,根本、枝條一無存留。主耶和華從他的聖殿要見證你們的不是。 看哪,耶和華出了他的居所,降臨步行地的高處。 眾山在他以下必消化,諸谷必崩裂,如蠟化在火中,如水沖下山坡

因為你們自己明明曉得,主的日子來到好像夜間的賊一樣。 人正說平安穩妥的時候,災禍忽然臨到他們,如同產難臨到懷胎的婦人一樣,他們絕不能逃脫

10 但主的日子要像賊來到一樣。那日,天必大有響聲廢去,有形質的都要被烈火銷化,地和其上的物都要燒盡了

耶穌在橄欖山上坐著,門徒暗暗地來,說:「請告訴我們,什麼時候有這些事?你降臨和世界的末了有什麼預兆呢?」 耶穌回答說:「你們要謹慎,免得有人迷惑你們。 因為將來有好些人冒我的名來,說:『我是基督』,並且要迷惑許多人。 你們也要聽見打仗和打仗的風聲,總不要驚慌,因為這些事是必須有的,只是末期還沒有到 民要攻打民,國要攻打國,多處必有饑荒、地震, 這都是災難[a]的起頭

15 耶和華以色列的神對我如此說:「你從我手中接這杯憤怒的酒,使我所差遣你去的各國的民喝。 16 他們喝了就要東倒西歪,並要發狂,因我使刀劍臨到他們中間。」 17 我就從耶和華的手中接了這杯,給耶和華所差遣我去的各國的民喝, 18 就是耶路撒冷猶大的城邑並耶路撒冷的君王與首領,使這城邑荒涼,令人驚駭、嗤笑、咒詛,正如今日一樣。 19 又有埃及王法老和他的臣僕、首領以及他的眾民20 並雜族的人民和烏斯地的諸王,與非利士地的諸王,亞實基倫加沙以革倫,以及亞實突剩下的人 21 以東摩押亞捫人, 22 推羅的諸王,西頓的諸王,海島的諸王, 23 底但提瑪布斯和一切剃周圍頭髮的, 24 阿拉伯的諸王,住曠野雜族人民的諸王, 25 心利的諸王,以攔的諸王,瑪代的諸王, 26 北方遠近的諸王以及天下地上的萬國喝了,以後示沙克[a]王也要喝。

27 「你要對他們說:『萬軍之耶和華以色列的神如此說:你們要喝,且要喝醉,要嘔吐,且要跌倒不得再起來,都因我使刀劍臨到你們中間。』 28 他們若不肯從你手接這杯喝,你就要對他們說:『萬軍之耶和華如此說:你們一定要喝! 29 我既從稱為我名下的城起首施行災禍,你們能盡免刑罰嗎?你們必不能免,因為我要命刀劍臨到地上一切的居民。這是萬軍之耶和華說的。』

30 「所以你要向他們預言這一切的話,攻擊他們,說:『耶和華必從高天吼叫,從聖所發聲,向自己的羊群大聲吼叫。他要向地上一切的居民呐喊,像踹葡萄的一樣。 31 必有響聲達到地極,因為耶和華與列國相爭。凡有血氣的,他必審問;至於惡人,他必交給刀劍。這是耶和華說的。』」

牧者宜哀號哭泣

32 萬軍之耶和華如此說:「看哪,必有災禍從這國發到那國,並有大暴風從地極颳起。」 33 到那日,從地這邊直到地那邊,都有耶和華所殺戮的。必無人哀哭,不得收殮,不得葬埋,必在地上成為糞土 34 牧人哪,你們當哀號、呼喊!群眾的頭目啊,你們要滾在灰中!因為你們被殺戮分散的日子足足來到,你們要跌碎,好像美器打碎一樣 35 牧人無路逃跑,群眾的頭目也無法逃脫。 36 聽啊,有牧人呼喊,有群眾頭目哀號的聲音,因為耶和華使他們的草場變為荒場。 37 耶和華發出猛烈的怒氣,平安的羊圈就都寂靜無聲。 38 他離了隱密處像獅子一樣,他們的地因刀劍凶猛的欺壓,又因他猛烈的怒氣,都成為可驚駭的

我卻說:「我消滅了!我消滅了!我有禍了!詭詐的行詭詐,詭詐的大行詭詐。」17 地上的居民哪,恐懼、陷坑、網羅都臨近你。 18 躲避恐懼聲音的必墜入陷坑,從陷坑上來的必被網羅纏住,因為天上的窗戶都開了,地的根基也震動了。 19 地全然破壞,盡都崩裂,大大地震動了 20 地要東倒西歪,好像醉酒的人;又搖來搖去,好像吊床。罪過在其上沉重,必然塌陷,不能復起

24 看哪,耶和華使地空虛,變為荒涼;又翻轉大地,將居民分散。 那時百姓怎樣,祭司也怎樣;僕人怎樣,主人也怎樣;婢女怎樣,主母也怎樣;買物的怎樣,賣物的也怎樣;放債的怎樣,借債的也怎樣;取利的怎樣,出利的也怎樣。 地必全然空虛,盡都荒涼,因為這話是耶和華說的。 地上悲哀衰殘,世界敗落衰殘,地上居高位的人也敗落了 地被其上的居民汙穢,因為他們犯了律法,廢了律例,背了永約。 所以地被咒詛吞滅,住在其上的顯為有罪;地上的居民被火焚燒,剩下的人稀少 新酒悲哀,葡萄樹衰殘,心中歡樂的俱都嘆息。 擊鼓之樂止息,宴樂人的聲音完畢,彈琴之樂也止息了。 人必不得飲酒唱歌,喝濃酒的必以為苦。 10 荒涼的城拆毀了,各家關門閉戶,使人都不得進去。 11 在街上因酒有悲嘆的聲音,一切喜樂變為昏暗,地上的歡樂歸於無有。 12 城中只有荒涼,城門拆毀淨盡。 13 在地上的萬民中,必像打過的橄欖樹,又像已摘的葡萄所剩無幾。

14 耶和華的大日臨近,臨近而且甚快。乃是耶和華日子的風聲,勇士必痛痛的哭號。 15 那日是憤怒的日子,是急難困苦的日子,是荒廢淒涼的日子,是黑暗、幽冥、密雲、烏黑的日子, 16 是吹角呐喊的日子,要攻擊堅固城和高大的城樓。17 「我必使災禍臨到人身上,使他們行走如同瞎眼的,因為得罪了我。他們的血必倒出如灰塵,他們的肉必拋棄如糞土。」 18 當耶和華發怒的日子,他們的金銀不能救他們。他的憤怒如火,必燒滅全地,毀滅這地的一切居民,而且大大毀滅

耶和華說:「我必從地上除滅萬類。 我必除滅人和牲畜,與空中的鳥、海裡的魚,以及絆腳石和惡人。我必將人從地上剪除。」這是耶和華說的。 「我必伸手攻擊猶大耶路撒冷的一切居民

On 30 March the central bank kept its key interest rates unchanged

Egypt’s central bank is set to meet on 21 May to discuss the possibility of raising interest rates, following the IMF delegation visit to Cairo this week.

The meeting will come after the IMF’s first review of Egypt’s $12bn loan programme, which could see the international fund disburse the second tranche of the loan by the end of the month.

On 30 March, the central bank kept its key interest rates unchanged during a Monetary Policy Committee meeting. It kept its overnight deposit rate at 14.75 per cent and its overnight lending rate at 15.75 per cent, the fourth consecutive meeting where rates were unchanged since it aggressively hiked them in November.

Local banking sources have told MEED that the central bank may increase interest rates again following mounting pressure from the IMF to curb rising inflation rates, which reached highs of 32 per cent in March this year.

The idea is that high interest rates will allow for economic growth. But a number of analysts have told MEED that in the case of Egypt, higher interest rates do little to appease Egypt’s problem of “supply shocks rather than demand-driven inflation,” as finance minister, Amr al-Garhy, put in in an interview on local television earlier this month.

Higher interest rates can help in raising inflows into treasury bills and investment portfolios. They can also help compensating creditors for inflation.

The problem is inflation in Egypt has little to do with liquidity in people’s hands, it is caused by a surge in production costs following the currency devaluation, the lifting of key subsidies, the introduction of a value added tax and a hike in custom fees. Raising interest rates in this case does little to curb supply inflation, which is the case for Egypt.

In an attempt to avoid raising domestic interest rates, the cabinet recently raised the limit of the maximum amount of dollar bonds the country can issue on international markets by $2bn. The ceiling of international dollar issuances to fixed income investors is currently capped at $5bn and has been raised to $7bn, indicating Cairo could return to the international debt market again this year.

International debt markets and the IMF’s $12bn loan may have helped Cairo boost its foreign reserves and provide the required push for much-needed needed reforms. But the speed of the reforms coupled with the lack of effort to alleviate the effects of these changes could leave Egypt and IMF in a similar situation to Greece, where public debt continues to rise without any reform programmes showing any signs of fruition.

The IMF delegation could therefore find itself at odds with the Egyptian government this week. Policymakers in Cairo will be concerned with rising living costs and deteriorating living conditions that have followed its ambitious reform programme.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/24/the-guardian-view-on-egypts-dictatorship-a-war-of-sisis-own-making

The Guardian view on Egypt’s dictatorship: a war of Sisi’s own making

Egypt matters not just for its size but also as a weathervane of the political forces shaping the Arab world. Human rights abuses undermine efforts to establish security throughout Egypt. If Mr Sisi wanted advice he should heed his own. As defence minister under President Mohamed Morsi, Egypt’s first democratically elected head of state, he lectured army officers about the need to tread carefully in sands of the Sinai. He warned troops they risked creating an enemy within if they were to besiege and bomb civilians. Security, he said, could not be imposed by combat. Mr Sisi cautioned that a South Sudan situation could develop where a low-level revolt became an armed independence movement. That is now a real danger. Experts point out there is a terror attack every day in Sinai. It was here the Egyptian army fought three wars against Israel. Mr Sisi has turned what started five years ago as minor local unrest into an Egypt-wide jihadi insurgency.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/04/04/sisi-a04.html

Egyptian dictator el-Sisi welcomed to the White House

By Patrick Martin
4 April 2017

President el-Sisi met with his financial paymasters at the World Bank even before visiting Trump at the White House. He also met with Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of General Electric, and was to meet later in the week with officials of the International Monetary Fund. At each stop, including the White House, el-Sisi pledged to continue his program of “economic reform,” which involves slashing subsidies for consumer goods like bread and further opening the Egyptian economy to foreign investment.

Last month the cut in subsidies for bread, demanded by the IMF, triggered riots in many cities. In a commentary in Foreign Policy magazine, Zeinab Abul-Magd of Oberlin College wrote, “The riots reveal that, underneath this tranquility, a war is raging between the country’s domineering army and its civilian poor,” adding, “The stability of Egypt’s military regime is not guaranteed to last.”

http://www.madamasr.com/en/2017/04/28/feature/economy/a-disconnect-of-interest-the-social-injustice-hidden-in-egypts-monetary-policy/

A disconnect of interest: The social injustice hidden in Egypt’s monetary policy

IMF review: A social injustice loop

There are no imminent signs that the IMF could withhold the second disbursement of the loan completely.

The London-based economic research company Capital Economics published a research note earlier this month, stating that it expects Egypt to pass the first review and receive the $1.25 billion second tranche.

The IMF visit notably comes a month later than originally planned, because of the Egyptian government’s commitment to prepare a new budget, according to comments made to the privately owned Al-Shorouk newspaper by Head of the IMF Commission to Egypt Chris Jarvis last February, the delay means that the potential disbursal of the second installment will be put off until at least the end of June, as opposed to the preset date in May, thereby allowing the commission the needed six to eight weeks to prepare its report.

The Central Bank of Egypt’s monetary policy committee is scheduled to convene on May 18 to make a decision regarding interest rates.

Capital Economics expects there to be tension between the government and the IMF if the government pushes back against harsher austerity measures, even if, in the estimation of Shenety, such measures would lead to the continuation of the current state of stagflation.

“This is how austerity policy keeps feeding itself. In this process, subsidies keep shrinking to compensate for rising debt service,” says Sultan. “Raising interest rates is the essence of the social injustice hidden within Egypt’s monetary policy.”

 

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