11.04.2016.有一個國家出事了!埃及貨幣是如何一步步走向"毀滅"的,

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Egypt in urgent need to push economic reform

Source: Xinhua

2016-11-04 21:00:29

             

 CAIRO, Nov. 4 (Xinhua) — Egypt‘s Prime Minister Sherif Ismail said Friday that the state “no longer has the luxury" of being able to postponing urgent economic reforms, a day after the central bank floated the Egyptian pound and the government raised fuel prices.

“Lifting the subsidies was planned over five years, but we have to move forward to improve the economy by taking serious decisions and not only depending on analgesics," Ismail said at a press conference held on the weekend with the cabinet’s economic group ministers.

On Thursday, the Central Bank floated its currency to address a dollar crunch that has threatened to bring some imports to a halt, and to make a final push to secure a 12 billion U.S. dollar International Monetary Fund loan within days.

The bank in a statement said the decision of floating is part of an economic reform program to curb the budget deficit, push local production, boost foreign investments and save funds to improve healthcare and education services.

The Petroleum Ministry also raised the prices of the subsidized fuel by 30-50 percent, being effective on Friday.

Long queues of cars, motorbikes and minibuses lined up in petrol stations across Egypt early Friday to fill up their tanks before the new prices becomes effective.

Describing the decisions as “historic," Egypt’s premier said that the government aims to cut a subsidy bill that currently totals 201 billion Egyptian pounds (14.67 billion U.S. dollars) a year to free up cash for other spending.

“The majority of the budget was spent on the subsidies, leaving only 200 billion pounds (14.59 billion dollars) for health, education and other services," Ismail added.

“The public debt has nearly doubled, so we couldn’t wait any more," he said, defending Thursday’s decisions as “decisions of our fate."

The economic program aims to decrease the budget deficit, which currently stands at 12.2 percent of the GDP, to less than 10 percent, he added.

He pointed out that the program will aim also to increase the taxes and reduce the state subsidies.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Amr El-Gharhy said on Friday that having two exchange rates on the official and the black markets had hindered direct investment in the country that suffered an ailing economy as Egypt saw two uprisings and topple of two president since 2011.

Raising the prices of subsidized energy would decrease pressure on the state budget," Gharhy said.

Floating the pound is necessary for Egypt to not be reliant on aid, he added.

To protect the poor from the rise in prices, subsidies bill for basic commodity will raise to 49 billion pounds (3.57 billion dollars) from 44 billion pounds (3.21 billion dollars) after a recent decision to increase subsidies for individuals from 18 (1.3 pounds) to 21 pounds (1.53 dollars), the finance minister said.

Floating the pound had long been among a list of measures demanded by investors and international creditors, but had been avoided in the fear that rising prices could provoke popular anger from the poor class.

Egypt’s Oil Minister Tariq al-Molla said on Friday that the fuel price hikes will save 22 billion Egyptian pounds (1.60 billion dollars.)

Egypt currently imports one third of petroleum product needs," al-Molla added. He expected Egypt will reach gas self sufficiency by 2020 due to recent discoveries.

Egypt’s pound plunged in value on Thursday, with the dollar trading on official markets at between 13.5 and 16 Egyptian pounds, up sharply from the previous rate of 8.8.

Egypt’s stock market on Thursday gained 11 billion pounds (80 million dollars.)

The Central Bank’s governor said the bank targets to increase the cash reserve from 19.59 billion dollars to 25 billion dollars by the end of 2016.

The head of the IMF commission to Egypt said the flexible currency rate system that has declared by the Central Bank will help improve Egypt’s competitiveness in the world markets and will also boost the exports and tourism, and lure foreign investments.

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有一個國家出事了!埃及貨幣是如何一步步走向"毀滅"的

(2016-11-04 22:30)

周四(3日),埃及央行宣布允許匯率自由浮動,埃及鎊兌美元將一次性貶值至13,此前為8.8;同時加息300個基點。此舉宣布后,埃及股指EGX 30指數大漲逾10%,創2008年以來最大漲幅

埃及央行宣布上述所有措施立即生效。該行此舉意在應對國內嚴重的美元短缺,「消除國內匯市的任何扭曲」,恢復投資者對本國的信心。

由於國內美元匱乏,埃及鎊匯率過去一個多月在本國黑市一貶再貶,一度跌至12.99的歷史最低水平。官方匯率因此承壓。

就在10月30日,黑市美元匯率賣價為18至18.2埃及鎊,買價為17.5至17.85埃及鎊,是官方匯率的兩倍多。今年黑市匯率跌幅超過50%。

為應對2015-16財年12%的財政赤字和嚴重的匯市扭曲等困境,埃及8月份與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)達成初步協議,獲得對方120億美元的三年期貸款,以此支撐經濟改革。

作為經濟改革的一部分,埃及此前被普遍預計將令埃及鎊貶值,並放棄挂鉤美元、採取更為靈活的匯率機制

自從2011年的Arab Spring運動以來,埃及經濟頻頻受到政治動蕩的拖累。很多海外投資者和旅行者受到驚嚇,紛紛避開該國,這阻礙了該國經濟和外國直接投資(FDI)增長,也使外匯儲備承壓。

由於埃及嚴重依賴進口商品,從食品到日用品到豪華汽車,幾乎一切生活用品全靠進口。而政治不穩定嚇跑了遊客和投資者,使得該國美元越來越短缺,黑市匯率也自此淪陷,很多進口商暫停進口商品。

美元短缺和部分進口商暫停進口所助推的惡果之一,就是國內的食糖危機。過去幾周,嚴重的食糖短缺衝擊埃及市場。國內搶糖成風,黑市販糖活動猖獗,民眾搶購政府補貼的食糖。過去兩年間,埃及糖價上漲了兩倍多

11月1日,開羅新聞網站Aswat Masriya報導稱,埃及補給部決定,為應對糖短缺,將糖補貼提高40%,從每公斤5埃及鎊提升至7埃及鎊。這也是市場價格。

美元短缺、黑市匯率暴貶、多項物資匱乏……聽起來很耳熟?沒錯,奈及利亞、委內瑞拉現在也都是這種狀況。早在今年6月15日,奈及利亞政府就已經扛不住了,被迫宣布本幣奈拉對美元實施自由浮動匯率機制

正如奈及利亞總統Muhammadu Buhari當時在《華爾街日報》刊文所說的:「長期的結構性失衡和過度依賴進口的事實已經殘酷地暴露出來了

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浮動的排位

 (2016-11-04 01:24) 

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 原標題:浮動的排位

  埃及實施浮動匯率

  埃及央行周四宣布實施浮動匯率,埃及鎊兌美元的官方指導匯率從8.88升到13。該行同時宣布加息300個基點,以平衡外匯市場。今年3月為了舒緩美元嚴重短缺壓力、吸引投資、刺激出口和維持外匯儲備,埃及央行把埃及鎊貶值13%,為2003年來首次。在周四稍早的交易中,埃及基準的EGX30股指飆升超過8%。

  BBC說,埃及央行稱貨幣自由浮動是一系列旨在增強外界對埃及經濟信心的改革措施之一,也是獲得國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)援助必須滿足的關鍵條件之一。

  英鎊儲備貨幣地位之憂

  評級機構標準普爾上周表示,如果英鎊佔全球外匯儲備的比重跌破3%,將意味著該機構不再把英鎊列為儲備貨幣,這最終可能導致標普再度下調英國主權債信評級。而另一家評級機構穆迪也已經表示,「大量持續」資本外流給英鎊帶來的下行壓力,這將引燃外界對於英鎊儲備貨幣地位的根本質疑,而且可能導致英國主權評級被下調。

  路透社指出,儘管全球各國央行現金儲備的變化通常非常緩慢,但英國潛在的「硬脫歐」對英鎊的打擊,最終可能損害英鎊的全球儲備貨幣地位。英國龐大的經常賬目赤字在全球排名居前,每年需仰賴數千億英鎊資本流入,方能達致收支平衡。各國央行對英鎊儲備的需求,向來是英國海外融資一大關鍵、穩定而可靠的來源。各國央行對英鎊持有比重即便略微下滑,都可能對英國財政狀況造成相當大的影響。

  美股道指的驅動者

  根據華爾街日報市場數據集團的研究,聯合健康集團、卡特彼勒公司、國際商業機器公司(IBM)、雪佛龍公司以及3M公司為道瓊斯指數今年年內的漲幅貢獻了81%。它們各自為道瓊斯指數截至10月底的717點年內漲幅貢獻了100多點。

  華爾街日報分析指出,今年這五隻股票上漲背後的一個原因是,投資者在爭奪創造收益的股票。據FactSet的數據,這五隻股票的年度股息收益率平均為3.2%左右,略低於標準普爾500指數公共事業股3.6%的平均股息收益率。由於債券收益率較低,投資者紛紛尋求收益,推動公共事業類股強勁上漲。標準普爾500指數成份股的平均股息收益率為2.2%。THE_END

 

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