Egypt teeters on the brink of civil war August 16, 2013 Nikolay Surkov, RBTH

埃及陷入歷史最黑暗時刻 離內戰幾步之遙   2013-08-17 09:26:07


The Sun’s Magnetic Field is about to Flip

Aug. 5, 2013

Science@NASA Headline News — 2013

Something big is happening on the sun. The sun’s global magnetic field is poised to reverse polarity, a sign that Solar Max has arrived.

32 The Lord Almighty says that disaster is coming on one nation after another, and a great storm is gathering at the far ends of the earth.

33 On that day the bodies of those whom the Lord has killed will lie scattered from one end of the earth to the other. No one will mourn for them, and they will not be taken away and buried. They will lie on the ground like piles of manure.

18 On the day when the Lord shows his fury, not even all their silver and gold will save them. The whole earth will be destroyed by the fire of his anger. He will put an end—a sudden end—to everyone who lives on earth.

19 Pharaoh king of Egypt, his servants, his princes, and all his people;

14 The Lord has mingled a perverse spirit in her midst;
And they have caused Egypt to err in all her work,
As a drunken man staggers in his vomit.

The Lord says, “I will stir up civil war in Egypt and turn brother against brother and neighbor against neighbor. Rival cities will fight each other, and rival kings will struggle for power.

I will hand the Egyptians over to a tyrant, to a cruel king who will rule them. I, the Lord Almighty, have spoken.”

埃及陷入歷史最黑暗時刻 離內戰幾步之遙, 2013-08-17

中評社香港8月17日電/“這是埃及歷史上最黑暗的時刻之一”,埃及中東政治問題專家侯賽因教授16日接受《環球時報》記者採訪時說,持續的流血衝突造成 重大人員傷亡,這令人感到痛心和遺憾。據侯賽因教授介紹,埃及軍方的武力清場行動得到很多民眾支持,因為他們明白穆兄會的所作所為已經超出法律的範圍。不 過,看到血腥在埃及各地蔓延,越來越多的人開始反思,驅散示威者確實很有必要,但是武力手段究竟能給埃及帶來什麼樣的結果?埃及人很迷茫。

據《環球時報》報道,記者15日下午出門察看,發現原本車流不息、繁華熱鬧的阿拉伯國家聯盟大街和英雄大街顯得十分冷清。記者還看到3輛滿載 安全部隊士兵的運兵車正在向阿盟大街駛去。路口一名身著黑色制服維持秩序的警察趕緊走上前提醒記者,不要在路上多做停留,立即回家。

“埃及陷入內戰的各項因素已經具備”,法國國際廣播電台16日在報道中稱,目前有很多因素正在匯聚到一起,導致這個國家可能陷入內戰:埃及社 會從此兩極化;2011年革命以來許多人配備了武器;在支持和反對穆爾西的群眾之間不時發生的對抗,讓人擔心局勢會朝著公開且直接的衝突方向發展。
俄羅斯《消息報》16日稱,穆爾西的支持者不會未經戰鬥就投降,此次大規模流血事件後,他們將會拿起武器與軍方對抗。而埃及軍方一直高高在 上,他們並不把其他人放在眼中,會不假思索地向抗議者射擊。一些極端伊斯蘭分子也會採取爆炸等方式對抗軍方,埃及離內戰只有幾步之遙。
8月17日出版的英國《經濟學家》雜誌在封面文章中說,將軍的“殺戮狂歡”是對“阿拉伯之春”教訓的無情否認,軍方的做法反而帶來長期衝突的 威脅,可能會把埃及拖入內戰之中。最糟糕的狀況可能將是阿爾及利亞的遭遇,在伊斯蘭分子1991年獲得大選勝利後,軍隊並沒有讓他們掌權,隨後長達10年 的流血衝突造成20萬人死亡。
西方更害怕一個動蕩、貧窮的埃及會成為產生“基地”組織等恐怖勢力的溫床。美國有線電視新聞網15日評論說,埃及出生的“基地”組織頭目扎瓦 赫裡早就預測到埃及發生的這一幕:一個伊斯蘭主義政黨在選舉中獲勝,然後被軍方無情地推翻。他肯定會把埃及局勢視為一個真正的機會,目前“基地”組織已經 在埃及有了立足之地,在埃及東部的西奈半島,一個“聖戰”組織已經與“基地”組織正式合併。

社會兩極化 埃及瀕臨內戰




1928年成立的穆斯林兄弟會(Muslim Brotherhood),在親西方的前總統穆巴拉克統治時期,亟欲成立遵奉傳統伊斯蘭教義國家。2005年首度參政,去年莫西當選後終於如願執政,但不得人心。
另一名支持軍方的民眾則說:「我在電視上看到很多穆斯林兄弟會的暴徒,持槍攻擊士兵與安全部隊。」 另一方面,支持穆斯林兄弟會的民眾,則對軍方的殘酷相當震驚,大罵:「軍方不該殺害反對他們的人。軍人都是狗!」


埃及正以驚人的速度,從一個充滿危機的國家,演變成隨時爆發內戰的國家!穆斯林作家兼評論家赫瓦迪(Fahmy Howeidy)在《獨立日報》寫道:「內戰的火花已經迸出……埃及即將跌入萬劫不復的深淵」。自前獨裁總統穆巴拉克在2011年革命中被推翻,埃及就逐漸變成兩極化社會。從國家認同、基督教徒與其他少數民族的權益,乃至民主價值等觀念,都存在分歧與對立。而當莫西被軍方罷黜後,裂痕再度擴大。日前軍方血腥鎮壓行動,則使得政治上的對立染上恐怖的鮮血。

Egypt teeters on the brink of civil war

August 16, 2013 Nikolay Surkov, RBTH
Russian experts discuss the potential outcomes of the current situation in Egypt.
Egypt teeters on the brink of civil war
After the dispersal of anti-government demonstrations in Cairo, the death toll has risen to 500. Source: Reuters

As the situation in Egypt deteriorates, the Russian Foreign Ministry has recommended its citizens to refrain from visiting the country. The Ministry for Emergencies said it was ready to evacuate Russians currently in Egypt if the country’s leadership issued such an order.

After the dispersal of anti-government demonstrations in Cairo, the death toll has risen to 500. As of August 14, a month-long state of emergency has been announced and a curfew has been imposed in 11 provinces.

The scale and ferocity of the clashes in Cairo have prompted fears of a real civil war in Egypt. Russian experts admit that the risk of a flare-up is high but hope that the Egyptian elites will be reasonable and come to terms at the last moment.

Professor Marina Sapronova of the MGIMO Oriental Studies Department believes that, considering the latest developments, the situation in Egypt is unlikely to return to normal any time soon. “The situation is very complicated; it is a big country and society is split,” she says.

Yet, she is sure that there will be no civil war. “There will be no Libyan or Syrian scenario in Egypt. The potential for a revolution is not so great and, most importantly, no fuel is being added to the fire from abroad. Regional players are not interested in destabilisation.“

Sapronova is sure that, in the end, Egypt will revert to the old system because, as in the past, there are only three real political forces in the country: the Islamists, members of the old regime and the Army. “Everything hinges on a consensus between these three forces because there are no other forces that can make a difference in this situation,” she points out.

She is convinced that the army will play the key role: “A political settlement plan is to be unveiled shortly, a kind of road map developed by the military. The constitution will be changed, amendments will reduce the President’s powers and give more powers to the Army. The new constitution will form the basis for resetting the political system, a government will be formed and elections will be held,” she says.

Sapronova told RBTH that the evolution of the situation in Egypt would depend on how quickly the authorities will be able to solve the country’s economic problems. “Assistance from external players, such as Saudi Arabia, would be very important for that,” she adds.

Professor Grigory Kosach of the Russian State Humanities University believes that the current events in Egypt mark the second and final act of a government coup: “The country had two power centres and one of them was bound to try to destroy the other, sooner or later.”

The expert warns that there are many serious prerequisites for a civil war in Egypt, now that an attempt has been made to exclude the Muslim Brotherhood from the political process. This could bring to a radicalisation of the movement, with them turning into underground  militants.

Kosach is also of the idea that the current wave of violence might provoke a split within the military and security forces and cause some of them to take the side of the Muslim Brotherhood, as there are surely Islamist cells within these military establishments.

The crisis might be aggravated by the fact that the current Egyptian government is extremely unstable. “There was no consensus as to what to do with the demonstrators. The resignation of ElBaradei is a clear pointer to that. Other resignations may follow,” Kosach says.

Speaking about Egypt’s political future, Grigory Kosach notes that, considering the weakness of the civilian administration, the military might establish a dictatorship ‒ but that period wouldn’t last for long, as the global community’s reaction could turn out to be highly negative. “The Generals do not want to be deprived of military aid, so they will have to restore parliamentary life and write a new constitution,” he explains.

Vasily Kuznetsov, Associate Professor at the Faculty of International Politics at Moscow University, says that one should expect “a long period of political violence” in Egypt, as was the case in Algeria in the 1990s, rather than a civil war like in Syria.

He lists several factors that are contributing to the destabilization of the situation. First, society is split down the middle. Second, there are economic problems that take time to solve. And third, a lot of people have weapons, and militants keep arriving from Libya and Syria.

“Events might follow one of two scenarios. The first has the political elites proving to be wiser than the population, reaching a compromise and pacifying the masses. Yet that is only possible if people are unarmed. The second scenario would see military confrontation,” Kuznetsov argues.

The expert notes that, in order to overcome the crisis, the military first has to disarm the population and come to terms with the Muslim Brotherhood. “A government of technocrats has to be installed. And there should be no parliamentary democracy in the next year or two. The authorities cannot allow themselves to take the cue from the street. Even so, an advisory body including Islamists should be set up. It would also be desirable to tap the resources of the Egyptian diaspora abroad,” the expert stresses.



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