Analysis: Egypt has all the ingredients for an insurgency, August 9th, 2013,

The Sun’s Magnetic Field is about to Flip

Aug. 5, 2013

Science@NASA Headline News — 2013

Something big is happening on the sun. The sun’s global magnetic field is poised to reverse polarity, a sign that Solar Max has arrived.

The Sun’s Magnetic Field is about to Flip

 
Pin it

August 5, 2013:  Something big is about to happen on the sun.  According to measurements from NASA-supported observatories, the sun’s vast magnetic field is about to flip.

“It looks like we’re no more than 3 to 4 months away from a complete field reversal," says solar physicist Todd Hoeksema of Stanford University. “This change will have ripple effects throughout the solar system."

Field Flip (splash)

A new ScienceCast video anticipates the reversal of the sun’s global magnetic field. Play it

The sun’s magnetic field changes polarity approximately every 11 years.  It happens at the peak of each solar cycle as the sun’s inner magnetic dynamo re-organizes itself.  The coming reversal will mark the midpoint of Solar Cycle 24. Half of ‘Solar Max’ will be behind us, with half yet to come.

Hoeksema is the director of Stanford’s Wilcox Solar Observatory, one of the few observatories in the world that monitor the sun’s polar magnetic fields.  The poles are a herald of change. Just as Earth scientists watch our planet’s polar regions for signs of climate change, solar physicists do the same thing for the sun. Magnetograms at Wilcox have been tracking the sun’s polar magnetism since 1976, and they have recorded three grand reversals—with a fourth in the offing.

Field Flip (WSO, 200px)

Astronomers at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) monitor the sun’s global magnetic field on a daily basis. WSO home page

Solar physicist Phil Scherrer, also at Stanford, describes what happens: “The sun’s polar magnetic fields weaken, go to zero, and then emerge again with the opposite polarity. This is a regular part of the solar cycle."

A reversal of the sun’s magnetic field is, literally, a big event. The domain of the sun’s magnetic influence (also known as the “heliosphere") extends billions of kilometers beyond Pluto. Changes to the field’s polarity ripple all the way out to the Voyager probes, on the doorstep of interstellar space.

When solar physicists talk about solar field reversals, their conversation often centers on the “current sheet."  The current sheet is a sprawling surface jutting outward from the sun’s equator where the sun’s slowly-rotating magnetic field induces an electrical current.  The current itself is small, only one ten-billionth of an amp per square meter (0.0000000001 amps/m2), but there’s a lot of it: the amperage flows through a region 10,000 km thick and billions of kilometers wide.  Electrically speaking, the entire heliosphere is organized around this enormous sheet.

During field reversals, the current sheet becomes very wavy. Scherrer likens the undulations to the seams on a baseball.  As Earth orbits the sun, we dip in and out of the current sheet. Transitions from one side to another can stir up stormy space weather around our planet.

Field Flip (current sheet, 200px)

An artist’s concept of the heliospheric current sheet, which becomes more wavy when the sun’s magnetic field flips. More

Cosmic rays are also affected. These are high-energy particles accelerated to nearly light speed by supernova explosions and other violent events in the galaxy.  Cosmic rays are a danger to astronauts and space probes, and some researchers say they might affect the cloudiness and climate of Earth. The current sheet acts as a barrier to cosmic rays, deflecting them as they attempt to penetrate the inner solar system. A wavy, crinkly sheet acts as a better shield against these energetic particles from deep space.

As the field reversal approaches, data from Wilcox show that the sun’s two hemispheres are out of synch. 

“The sun’s north pole has already changed sign, while the south pole is racing to catch up," says Scherrer. “Soon, however, both poles will be reversed, and the second half of Solar Max will be underway."

When that happens, Hoeksema and Scherrer will share the news with their colleagues and the public.

Stay tuned to Science@NASA for updates.

Credits:

Author:Dr. Tony Phillips| Production editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

More information:

Is Solar Max Double-Peaked?  — ScienceCast video

Analysis: Egypt has all the ingredients for an insurgency

Analysis: Egypt has all the ingredients for an insurgency

about an hour ago

Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Tawakkol Karman, who’s been vocal on Egypt since Morsi was removed from power, has written for The Guardian about her personal experience of changing her mind.

“Clearly, the leaders of the military takeover have something to conceal from the watchful eyes of the world,” she writes. “That explains why I was recently refused entry into Egypt. I now feel I have a responsibility to warn the world of the fact that a fully fledged despotic regime is seeking to reinforce its foundations in the country. The 25 January revolution guaranteed freedom of expression, of assembly and organisation. All these freedoms have been crushed in the aftermath of the coup.”

Isaiah 19:1-4, Good News Translation, God Will Punish Egypt

19 This is a message about Egypt.

The Lord is coming to Egypt, riding swiftly on a cloud. The Egyptian idols tremble before him, and the people of Egypt lose their courage. The Lord says, “I will stir up civil war in Egypt and turn brother against brother and neighbor against neighbor. Rival cities will fight each other, and rival kings will struggle for power. I am going to frustrate the plans of the Egyptians and destroy their morale. They will ask their idols to help them, and they will go and consult mediums and ask the spirits of the dead for advice. I will hand the Egyptians over to a tyrant, to a cruel king who will rule them. I, the Lord Almighty, have spoken.”

In July, she retracted earlier support for protests in Egypt against Morsi.

Posted on August 9, 2013 by

Tags egypt, tawakkol karman

Egypt about 5 hours ago

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on Friday that the political crisis in Egypt after the army ousted Islamist president Mohamed Morsi could spark a civil war.

“We are worried about what is happening in Egypt,” he said in Eid al-Fitr remarks broadcast on state television.

“Speculation of a civil war is gaining momentum on a daily basis,” Khamenei said. “This would be a disaster with dire consequences.”

“What will stop the civil war if, God forbid, it happens?” he asked.

Khamenei’s comments came a day after Egypt’s interim presidency said Western and Arab initiatives to resolve its political deadlock had failed.

More than 250 people have been killed since the ouster of president Mohamed Morsi by the military on July 3, a coup which the Islamic republic condemned.

Khamenei also warned against foreign interference in Egypt, saying: ”Nothing but damage for the Egyptian people will come from the interference of foreign powers.”

Iran’s supreme leader strongly condemned political violence in Egypt, and called on its religious and political parties to learn from the lessons of Syria.

[AFP]

about an hour ago

Turkish President Abdullah Gul appealed to Egypt’s army-installed government on Friday to return the country swiftly to democratic rule and allow all parties to take part in the political process.

In an article published in the Financial Times, Gul urged the Egyptian authorities to release the detained former president, Islamist Mohamed Mursi, who was overthrown by the army last month, but stopped short of calling for his return to office.

The Turkish head of state, a member of the moderate Islamist AK party, also called on all sides to act with restraint and avoid violence.

“The Egyptian people have almost been split into two camps, each of which is rallying dangerously against the other. This situation is worrying and unsustainable,” he wrote. 

“Unfortunately, the historic step towards democracy failed in less than two years. The coup that ousted Mohamed Mursi, Egypt’s first democratically elected president, was a clear derailment of the country’s progress.”

[Reuters]

Glenn thrashes Sen. Lindsey Graham’s idiotic comments on Egypt

Friday, Aug 9, 2013 at 2:46 AM +0800

Your browser does not support iframes.

Get Glenn Live! On TheBlaze TV

Glenn’s blood hit the boiling point on radio this morning in reaction to some pretty remarkable audio from Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) about the crisis in Egypt. During a visit to Cairo earlier this week, the Senators sat down with CBS News and admitted that the country is “just days or weeks” away from “all out bloodshed.”

“Well, I was at the doctor early this morning because I thought I had a brain aneurysm last night,” Glenn said. “It was in the 5 o’clock hour, happened about 5:20, when Buck Sexton actually played the audio of Lindsey Graham on CBS News reporting on what their fact‑finding mission in Egypt found. Here it is:”

REPORTER: Are you alarmed by what you see happening in Egypt?

GRAHAM: Oh, my God. I didn’t know it was this bad. These folks are just days or weeks from all‑out bloodshed.

Yes, that was a senior United States Senator admitting he had absolutely no idea what was going on in Egypt.

“I can’t take it,” Glenn said disgusted.

“You had no idea, Lindsey,” Pat asked. “Have a television set, do you? “

Your browser does not support iframes.

Get Glenn Live! On TheBlaze TV

On last night’s Glenn Beck Program, Glenn laid out three things no one is talking about in regards to the Middle East. “And wait until it really slides off,” he said. “There are three things that you need to know about the Middle East today.”

Advertisement
  1. Egypt could collapse soon
  2. Libya is on the brink
  3. Turkey just gutted its military

“One, Egypt is – many people, including Lindsey Graham say now that – it is days from flying out of complete control,” Glenn explained. “What we’re talking about now is not Civil War. We are talking about massive bloodshed. We’re talking about Syria happening in Egypt.”

This type of conflict would have worldwide implications. Chiefly, Israel would be in immediate danger and the global economy could spiral out of control.

“If Egypt spirals out of control, that means the Gaza Strip is no longer monitored at all,” Glenn said. “Israel would now have massive fighters going in. There’s nobody standing guard against Israel.”

Furthermore, there is the issue of oil. In 2008, oil prices hit $140/barrel and the U.S. economy collapsed. Today, speculation is that oil could hit $300/barrel. “So you know, 80% of the world’s oil goes through Egypt and the Suez Canal… If you shut down the Suez Canal, they are now saying that the price of a barrel of oil could skyrocket,” he explained. “It was 140 where we collapsed. 140. They are saying now that if they close the Suez Canal, if there is massive strife in the Middle East, you are looking at $300 a barrel of oil. It’s not like you’re looking at $10 a gallon gasoline. You’ll be lucky to have gasoline.”

When someone like Sen. Graham, who is often touted for his foreign policy expertise, claims to not “know it was that bad” in Egypt, it’s safe to assume the government is in no way prepared for the worst case scenario.

“That’s what’s just happening in Egypt,” Glenn said. “But if you go west of Egypt, just over the border, you’re smack dab into Libya. Now, Libya, the leader of Libya… [is] saying that they are within a week of collapse themselves because the Muslim Brotherhood and Al Qaeda are fighting, and Islamists are about to take over.”

Both Egypt and Libya on the verge of collapse, but there is another situation of instability, this time in Turkey, that threatens the balance of power in the Mid East region. Turkey was admitted into NATO under the guise that it could never devolve into an Islamic state because of the military’s protection of the Constitution, but now it appears the military has lost that control.

“Do you know what [the prime minister of Turkey] did,” Glenn asked. “He’s arrested and put in prison for life the generals of the military in Turkey. Turkey is about to come undone.”

So what is the solution?

“Here’s the good news. There’s a solution in the Middle East. Because people in the Muslim Brotherhood, and people with Al Qaeda, and the people on the street are all talking about the same solution,” Glenn said. “There’s a way to put the genie back in the bottle. There’s a way to make it all work. And guess what that is: The magic Caliphate.”

Glenn has been mocked and ridiculed for talking about the inevitability of the Caliphate for quite some time, but he had a bold message this morning.

“I haven’t been this angry in quite some time,” Glenn said. “The one thing I don’t ever get right is time… I am wrong on timing, but I am telling you we are about to have an economic impact, the likes of which the globe has never seen. When – not if – when all these chickens come home to roost, you have mass chaos, not just in the Middle East, but it will slide the entire globe into chaos. And that means an economic impact… And then comes the giant reset… If you don’t know history, you’re about to repeat it… We have not progressed. If anything, we have regressed.”

Analysis: Egypt has all the ingredients for an insurgency

Amr Abdallah Dalsh / Reuters

Members of the Muslim Brotherhood and supporters of deposed Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi shout slogans during a protest at Rabaa Adawiya Square, where they are camping, in Nasr City, east of Cairo, on Aug. 7.

By Richard Engel, Correspondent, NBC News

News analysis

CAIRO – A troubling thing happened at the Cairo airport early one morning this week. 

Two Egyptian men arrived on a predawn flight from Istanbul. As they were walking through the arrival hall, airport officials say, one of the men threw something in a wastepaper basket before reaching customs control. The action seemed suspicious.

Their passports indicated the men had started their journey in Chechnya, a center of Islamic unrest in the Caucasus. Customs officials inspected their luggage and discovered they were carrying military uniforms, a black “al Qaeda flag,” and computer memory cards containing what seemed to be radical Islamist propaganda. Fishing through the trash, officials also found what they described as counterfeit passports. 

The men were taken into custody. Egyptian officials said they believe the men were Islamic extremists traveling to Egypt to wage jihad. 

It’s a very bad sign of what may be coming – a time of jihad and death on the Nile.

Middle East analysts and U.S. intelligence officers have told me they worry an insurgency may break out in Egypt. At a minimum, such an uprising could cause sporadic violence against the government, the Egyptian military and foreign visitors. Far worse, it could cause serious instability in this 5,000-year-old civilization.

After the military ousted the Muslim Brotherhood’s elected President Mohammed Morsi earlier this summer, Egypt has joined Syria as the cause du jour for Islamic crusaders. Al Qaeda’s chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, who U.S. officials say ordered his Yemeni captain to carry out a big terrorist attack somewhere in the vast West, has released an audio message urging Islamists to take their struggle to Egypt. Zawahiri, himself an Egyptian, has accused Washington of orchestrating the coup, saying it was paid for with money from Persian Gulf states and carried out with the complicity of Egyptian Christians.

At daily Muslim Brotherhood rallies in Cairo and Alexandria, protesters threaten jihad against the mostly-secular Egyptian military. 

The Egyptian military has said it will no longer tolerate the demonstrations, and may move to clear them out by force. The move could be what tips the kettle of Egypt’s brewing insurgency.

This week Sen. John McCain told NBC News he worries Egypt could follow the path of Algeria. In the 1990s, Islamists in Algeria won elections like the Brotherhood did in Egypt. The Algerian military refused to allow the Islamists to take power. A war erupted, killing between 100,000 to 200,000 people, depending on which estimates are to be believed.

Egyptians should hope McCain is wrong, but there are undeniable parallels. An Algeria redux in Egypt is the worst possibility, the nightmare of a total breakdown of order, death on the Nile every night. 

Intelligence officials and analysts say that horror show is possible, but expect a somewhat less dire, but still violent and persistent armed insurgency that could last years. 

Insurgencies are easy to make and hard to stop. Only a few ingredients need to combine to create an insurgency; like oxygen and fire, they’re very common and mix all too often. The recipe is simply: a legitimate grievance against a state, a state that refuses to compromise, a quorum of angry people, and access to weapons. 

Egypt appears to have them all.

Morsi was legitimately elected in 2012. His government’s performance was, by almost any standard, disastrous and didn’t respect the rights of other political groups. He is accused of colluding with Hamas, and of allowing the Sinai Peninsula, where the Bible says Moses handed down laws to his people, to become a lawless safe haven for wild-eyed jihadis and gun runners. 

Morsi was, of course, overthrown in what the United States doesn’t want to call a coup. He may have deserved it. Many Egyptians certainly think so. But does the Muslim Brotherhood have a cause to rally around? Yes. The first ingredient is there.

Is the military willing to compromise? It and the government it backs say they want to talk and find a solution. The government has reached out to religious leaders hoping to use them as intermediaries. But the military isn’t willing to step down. Is the state refusing compromise? Yes, but only from the Brotherhood’s perspective.

Insurgencies also need insurgents.  Does the Brotherhood have the numbers? The group claims that the majority of Egyptians support them, since they won the election by a majority. The Brotherhood’s opponents say the group only won the election because other parties weren’t organized and say the Brotherhood alienated many Egyptians during its year in power. But even the Brotherhood’s toughest critics say the group has a base of support that numbers at least in the millions. 

For an insurgency, you don’t need millions. Al Qaeda in Yemen, which now has powerful nations shutting its embassies around the globe, only has a core of about 1,000 members.  Does Egypt have the numbers for an insurgency? Yes, it does, and then some.   

The last ingredient is weapons. 

There was an insurgency under President Hosni Mubarak in the 1990s. Egyptian police and soldiers fought weekly battles with Islamists in the sugarcane fields and thick reeds along the Nile in rural southern villages like Minya, Sohag, Enna and Assiout.  Whenever I traveled to Assiout in the 1990s, I had to inform the Egyptian government of my movements ahead of time. On one trip, I was given a full military escort, including two tracked armored personnel carriers with machine guns. In 1997, Islamic extremists killed nine German tourists in front of the painfully rich Egyptian Museum in Tahrir Square. Two gunmen boarded the bus, started shooting tourists and set the vehicle on fire with Molotov cocktails. I lived down the street at the time and climbed on the smoking bus to see the bodies, still seated, melted to the nylon and plastic foam seats. Two months later, Islamic militants butchered 58 foreign tourists with assault rifles in front of the temple of the Pharaoh Queen Hatshepsut in Luxor, better known to the ancients as Thebes.

There weren’t many weapons in Egypt in the 1990s. Police controls on guns were very strict back them. That is no longer the case in Egypt today. When Libya collapsed after NATO airpower guided Mad Max rebels into Tripoli, Muammar Gadhafi’s weapons were smuggled out like rats off a sinking ship. The weapons went to Mali, Niger, Syria, Egypt and everywhere. Do Egyptians have access to enough arms for an insurgency? Oh, yes.

So what can be done? The easy answer would be to tell the military and the Brotherhood to work out a deal, to compromise and play nice together. But that seems unlikely. The military and the Brotherhood both want power and both feel they deserve to have it; both sides also have passionate supporters encouraging them to hold their ground. 

Analysts may be right to worry that death on the Nile may be coming.

Will Sissi seek Egypt’s presidency?

 
 
 
Email
Updated 2013-08-09 04:41:30

CAIRO: He is a savvy operator, people who have worked with him say, a career military officer who methodically campaigned a year ago to become Egypt’s defence minister under its first democratically elected president.

Now Gen. Abdel Fattah al Sissi is faced with a society even more bitterly divided than it was a year ago, when Mohamed Morsi took office as president.

Islamist supporters of Morsi, who was ousted by the military last month, warned on Wednesday that authorities risk provoking “civil war” if they go ahead with plans to break up protest camps, as officials have threatened to do after the collapse of international mediation efforts.

To those Islamists, al Sissi is intent on wiping their faction off the nation’s political map in a quest for absolute power. But a substantially larger share of Egyptians appears to ardently support the general, and many tout his name above all others in the search for a new leader.

Al Sissi, viewed as a pious Muslim, was supposed to be the Muslim Brotherhood’s man running the military. Now his sunglass-clad face is venerated in Cairo’s streets and his pictures pasted on the windows of minibuses and storefronts and clutched by men and women who wave Egyptian flags in Tahrir Square. For the most popular man in Egypt, the question is: Does he want to be the country’s next president?

Al Sissi, 58, has been coy about his plans, saying in an interview with The Washington Post last week that he did not aspire to a higher office but declining to rule out a presidential bid. “When the people love you,” he said, “this is the most important thing for me.”

Egyptian officials say that al Sissi’s commitment to returning the country to civilian-led democracy is genuine and that they do not think that he will run in elections, expected to be held next year.

But in a country where the only leader in six decades not to have a military background was just deposed in a coup, many say they would not be surprised if the charismatic al Sissi decided to throw his high-brimmed officer’s hat into the ring. Some supporters are hailing him as a new Gamal Abdel Nasser, the revered general who led the 1952 coup that overthrew Egypt’s monarchy.

”I think it’s hugely tempting for anyone,” said a high-ranking Western official, referring to the possibility that al Sissi might take his popularity to the polls. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive issue.

The clamour to bring al Sissi into the presidential palace is ironic, critics here say, given that many of his advocates were bitter foes of the military-backed rule of longtime autocrat Hosni Mubarak, a former air force commander. Public support also quickly soured for the armed-forces council that temporarily ruled after Mubarak was toppled in the 2011 revolution. After Morsi’s inauguration in June 2012, al Sissi was seen as a man who would be willing to work with the Muslim Brotherhood despite decades in which the military had persecuted the organisation. Al Sissi, considered by acquaintances who have talked faith with him to be deeply religious without being dogmatic, was considered a natural ally for Morsi, who was struggling to assert civilian control over the army.Al Sissi was then a fast-rising officer who had taken over as head of military intelligence and was assigned to serve as the armed forces’ liaison to the Brotherhood after the 2011 revolution.

His most prominent turn in the news during the year that Egyptian generals ran the country came when he defended the military after security forces were accused of administering “virginity tests” to female protesters. Rights groups said the practice amounted to state-sanctioned sexual assault.

US and Egyptian observers say al Sissi was quietly positioning himself as a successor to Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, a man about two decades al Sissi’s senior who was then leading the military.”I personally was not surprised at all that he would be picked” as defence minister, said Sameh Seif el-Yazel, a former Egyptian intelligence officer with close ties to the military who said he had spoken frequently to al Sissi since the 2011 revolution. “He’s a man who is straightforward, black and white. There is no gray area in dealing with strategic issues.”

Even before the revolution, al Sissi was among a group of rising leaders in Egypt’s army, participating in a prestigious international programme at the US Army War College in Carlisle, Pa., in the mid-2000s. There he wrote a paper titled “Democracy in the Middle East” and studied civilian-military relations, according to his adviser, Stephen Gerras. The focus was on the war then raging in Iraq, not on Egypt.

”He said this isn’t going to go the way you think,” Gerras said.

”The culture, the influence of religion, the poor quality of education, the impact of state-run media – all of those things make it very difficult to bring a Western form of democracy in the Mideast. And he would say, ‘You guys were kind of naive in Iraq.’” Another professor, Sherifa Zuhur, said the general was reserved but very intelligent.

”He distinguished himself with this quiet and reflective character. But then when he spoke, you could hear his experience,” she said. “The whole discussion of what happens when you suppress democracy was very much part of the discourse.”

Zuhur said al Sissi’s wife wore the niqab, or a face covering.

That piety led many to think that Morsi’s August 2012 appointment of al Sissi as defence minister meant a new era in relations between the military and the civilian Islamist leadership.

But by al Sissi’s own account, their relationship quickly became strained. Even before he became defence minister, he said in The Post interview, he was concerned about Morsi’s attempts to rein in the judiciary, which was packed with appointees from the Mubarak era.

At October celebrations to commemorate the 1973 war with Israel, al Sissi was miffed to have to sit in the stands near Tarek el-Zomor, who was convicted of being complicit in the plot to assassinate Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981, according to a fellow Egyptian officer who spoke to Sissi about the incident.

When Morsi granted himself vastly expanded powers in late November, al Sissi unilaterally called for a meeting of the country’s political leaders—an unusual step for a defence minister in a civilian-led government.

Morsi overruled him, before dialing back his broad assertion of power. By spring, tensions were even higher, as the economy continued to plummet and lines started building up at gas stations.

Former Morsi advisers accuse al Sissi of meeting with opposition leaders behind Morsi’s back. Al Sissi has said that he warned Morsi and US officials that Egypt’s problems were worsening. “Months ago, I told [US officials] there was a very big problem in Egypt. I asked them for their support, for their consultation, for their advice, as they are our strategic partner and allies,” he said.

By arrangement with The Washington Post/Bloomberg News Service

Egypt’s Islamists Turn Violent

The Muslim Brotherhood says that its protests are purely peaceful — but evidence is mounting of torture and weaponry at its Cairo sit-ins.

BY BEL TREW | AUGUST 8, 2013

CAIRO — Ahmed Sabet, 22, has been hospitalized for over a week.

“They stamped on his face,” said his cousin, Aly al-Masry, 20, who told Sabet’s story from his bedside as he drifted in and out of consciousness. “He has three stab wounds, a bullet hole through his leg and stick marks all over his body. There are bruises where he was dragged along the asphalt.”

On the night of July 26, during clashes with supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsy, Sabet, who is part of the April 6 Youth Movement that opposes the former leader, told Foreign Policy he was a victim of an armed assault by an Islamist mob. He says was dragged by pro-Morsy protesters to a nearby mosque, where a dozen other individuals were being held. There, he says, they tortured him for 14 hours.

The turmoil in Egypt has shown no sign of ending since Morsy’s ouster more than a month ago. And there are ominous signs that the violence is poised to worsen: The Egyptian government ordered the police last week to take “all the necessary measures” to disperse the two major pro-Morsy sit-ins that have been going on for more than a month, raising fears that the security services could once again open fire on Islamist demonstrators, as they have done previously. Meanwhile, President Adly Mansour delivered a speech on Aug. 7 declaring that the period of negotiations with the Muslim Brotherhood “ended today,” and other officials have denounced the Islamist protesters as “terrorists” contending the sit-ins are armed encampments that represent a danger to national security.

There is now mounting evidence that some Brotherhood loyalists within the pro-Morsy sit-ins  — which up until now had remained largely peaceful — are indeed armed, and have committed what some human rights groups describe as torture against their political opponents. In interviews, multiple Egyptians who clashed with or observed the pro-Morsy sit-ins describe being beaten and fired on by Morsy supporters.

Amnesty International released a report on Aug. 2 in which anti-Morsy protesters recount being “captured, beaten, subjected to electric shocks or stabbed” at the Islamists’ two encampments in the Cairo districts of Nasr City and Giza. Ten citizens have reportedly filed torture complaints at local police stations, Amnesty reported. And the violence has even claimed lives: “[W]e were told by the morgue five bodies bearing the marks of torture were found near both camps,” says Mohamed Lofty, an Amnesty researcher.

The body of 32-year-old tuk-tuk driver Amr, whose family requested that his full name not be published, was one of those found bearing signs of torture near a pro-Morsy sit-in. Amr’s corpse was dumped naked and mutilated by a metro station near the Giza encampment on July 20.

“I didn’t know my own brother from the body in the morgue. You could see the burn marks,” said his sister Samah, 35. “He was beaten by sticks everywhere from his head to his feet, and they electrocuted his face and his chest.”

Amr was on his way to the neighborhood near the encampment when he went missing on July 17. Days later, the police tracked Amr’s phone to a man based in the Giza camp, who said he had found the phone in the sit-in and claimed Amr had been accused of spying and stealing by the protesters. Samah believes Amr was tortured to death inside the sit-in.

Lofty explained that individuals like Amr are picked up by the self-appointed sit-in security guards if they are considered to be thieves, spies, or pro-military infiltrators. “People take justice into their hands, they think they are entitled to apply punishments, investigate and use cruelty,” he said. “They apply their own law in the camps.”

Authorities are still investigating the murder.

In addition to the torture allegations, human rights groups also say there is evidence that some Morsy supporters have brought guns to the protests — echoing claims by government officials, including Prime Minister Hezam al-Beblawi, that the protesters are armed and have “broken all the limits of peacefulness.” These reports don’t bode well for likely upcoming efforts to break up the sit-ins: If protesters are armed, Egypt’s poorly trained police force may not be able to shut down the encampments without considerable use of force and possibly further bloodshed.

“We can say with confidence that there are weapons in the Giza sit-in … it is not very well concealed,” says Karim Ennarah, a researcher at the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights. He pointed to a pro-Morsy rally in the nearby neighborhood of Bain el-Sarayat on July 2, when pro-Morsy protesters, marching back to the sit-in, opened fire on local residents as clashes erupted.

There is video evidence of how armed Islamists have used violence against their opponents. Ali Bazeed, 27, who works in a photocopying business overlooking the scene of the Bain el-Sarayat fighting, showed Foreign Policy the shop’s CCTV footage from the night of the clashes. In the video, bearded men and youth trash the premises. One man carries a rifle, while others brandish a pistol and a sword. Bazeed claims to know one of the men wielding a knife in the footage: “He’s from here and lives in the sit-in.”

Later in the video, dozens of men from the same group brutally beat a young man caught up in the clashes.

The Muslim Brotherhood says that its protests are purely peaceful — but evidence is mounting of torture and weaponry at its Cairo sit-ins.

BY BEL TREW | AUGUST 8, 2013

The next day, July 3, which saw the military move in to depose Morsy, brought further evidence that the Giza sit-in was armed. Mohamed, a 22-year-old local journalist and human rights worker, reported seeing handmade shotguns, made by citizens in underground workshops, at the site. “They were lying on the floor in the corner of a tent.”

Alaa Abdel-Fattah, a 31-year-old renowned activist and blogger opposed to the Muslim Brotherhood who lives in the area, also recounts being shot at with live ammunition from the direction of the sit-in on July 23.

“We clearly saw a couple of guys with machine guns who were shooting constantly in the air in an Islamist march towards the Giza sit-in a few weeks ago,” Abdel-Fattah says. He describes unidentified shooters from within the area of the encampment “taking pot shots” at anyone believed to be a “thug or a threat” during these fights. Abdel-Fattah himself took one bystander who had been shot through the shoulder, with the bullet entering his chest, to the hospital, but the man later died from his wound.

“I talked to people in the camp who admit that they have weapons, but their version is that they are constantly attacked by thugs supported by the police,” Abdel-Fattah says. However, he says, those with weapons are in the minority. “We’re dealing with a few highly armed individuals — this is not the whole sit-in.”

Meanwhile, reports of attacks on Egyptian journalists at Morsy rallies continue to rise. The Brotherhood has feuded with local media since the military takeover — and most Egyptian news outlets are staunchly critical of the protests, sometimes to a fault. In reaction, demonstrators appear to be taking matters into their own hands.

Cameraman Shehab Eldin Abdel Razeq, 23, who works for ONTV, a television channel widely perceived to be anti-Morsy, was one of the victims of the protesters’ anger. He sustained head injuries after he was beaten with sticks in the Nasr City sit-in on the day of Morsy’s ouster. “They took me to a tent where there were five other people, bound and in a mess,” he said. “I had to pretend that I worked for an American network.”

The Muslim Brotherhood and the “Anti-Coup Coalition,” which has organized the nationwide demonstrations calling for Morsy’s reinstatement, have repeatedly denounced the allegations of violence as a campaign by the authorities to rally public support for a crackdown. And inside the sit-ins themselves, Morsy backers vehemently deny that they are armed.

“We want to talk to the Egyptian media, they’re the ones who turned their backs on us, check my tent, we have nothing like weapons,” says Radwan Ragheb, 32, an electrician living at the Giza sit-in.

Top Brotherhood officials, meanwhile, argue that the charges of violence are fabricated by the media and security apparatus ahead of an impending police crackdown.

“The main purpose is to put the protests in the context of terrorism, so that they have to be dissolved as a threat to national security,” says Amr Darrag, a former minister of international cooperation under Morsy and leading Brotherhood figure.

In response to Amnesty’s report, those organizing the sit-ins invited the international rights group on a tour of the encampments. Lofty, the Amnesty researcher, interviewed the Nasr City sit-in’s security team, which is charged with instigating much of the violence. They admitted to conducting “interrogations” of “thugs” underneath the sit-in’s main stage, but denied the presence of torture cells.

Despite its recent report, Amnesty has also slammed the government’s calls to clear the sit-in as a “recipe for further bloodshed” given the security forces’ routine use of excessive and unwarranted lethal force. Rights groups say the actions of a few individuals do not give the army carte blanche for a violent dispersal of mainly peaceful protests.

However, with new reports that attempts at reconciliation between the interim government and the Brotherhood have been officially declared a failure, the clock is now ticking for the encampments. The Egyptian security forces are likely to use testimonies of violence and torture as a reason that the sit-ins must be cleared. And with the Muslim Brotherhood showing no signs of giving in, it’s becoming increasingly hard to see how Egypt avoids another round of bloodshed.

  • Analysis: Egypt has all the ingredients for an insurgency

    Solar storm August 2013 to become intense: Sun’s magnetic field set to FLIP

    August 9, 2013 | Filed under: Business | Posted by:

    Jeremiah 25:32-33, Good News Translation (GNT)

    32 The Lord Almighty says that disaster is coming on one nation after another, and a great storm is gathering at the far ends of the earth.

    33 On that day the bodies of those whom the Lord has killed will lie scattered from one end of the earth to the other. No one will mourn for them, and they will not be taken away and buried. They will lie on the ground like piles of manure.

    The Sun’s Magnetic Field is about to Flip

    Aug. 5, 2013

    Science@NASA Headline News — 2013

    Something big is happening on the sun. The sun’s global magnetic field is poised to reverse polarity, a sign that Solar Max has arrived.

    NASA has said that solar storm August 2013 is set to become intense and Sun’s magnetic field set to FLIP

    The sun’s magnetic field is all set to undergo a drastic flip due to a solar event called Solar Maximum that takes place once every 11 years. Though the change in the magnetic field that would remain in place for coming three to four months may not cause extreme changes but might lead to climatic changes, storms and disruption of satellites.

    According to the scientists at the Stanford’s Wilcox Solar Observatory who have been studying the sun’s magnetic field since 1976,  during the phase of Solar Maximum, the Sun’s solar activity is at its highest and the subsequent outbursts of energy can be responsible for increase in the amount of cosmic and UV rays coming towards Earth.

    “This may also interfere with the radio communications, lead to solar bursts of light – known as flares – and can affect the planet’s temperature,” said the scientists. The flip of the Sun’s magnetic fields that would reverse their polarity would take place before the end of 2013.

    “This change will have ripple effects throughout the solar system. The sun’s magnetic field reverses around every 11 years at the peak of each solar cycle. The last peak, or Solar Maximum, was in 2000 and NASA initially predicted the next flip would take place between 2011 and 2012,” added the group.

    It may be recalled that a solar storm called Solar Superstorm, or Carrington Event after Richard C Carrington who recorded the event that took place in 1859 caused a number of solar flares flashing all over the Earth. In fact it was due to these flares that the Northern Lights, appearing in the Arctic and Antarctic regions were visible as far south as Rome.

    shareshareshareshare

廣告

發表迴響

在下方填入你的資料或按右方圖示以社群網站登入:

WordPress.com Logo

您的留言將使用 WordPress.com 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

Twitter picture

您的留言將使用 Twitter 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

Facebook照片

您的留言將使用 Facebook 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

Google+ photo

您的留言將使用 Google+ 帳號。 登出 / 變更 )

連結到 %s